Re:Warm isn't it?
Wednesday, July 18 2012 @ 04:46 PM CDT

Quote by: VicDiesel Quote by: Dadai.2 current data seems shows temps peaked in 2008. A mere 4 years ago? Even 10 years is a blip in climate terms. A minimal bit of googling finds me the statement that you should use 30 years moving averages. Victor.

Vic, you're a piece of work, my friend... The data wasn't put up, as I wrote, to predict anything nor to make a definitive statement on trends. Take a deep breath. Here's a longer term chart of global temps from World Climate Report (that may almost be as authoritative as Rolling Stone, which goes where angels even fear to tread):

Re:Warm isn't it?
Wednesday, July 18 2012 @ 04:49 PM CDT

Quote by: VicDiesel I Me, I don't care. I'm past 50 and have no children. Those of you younger or with offspring, godspeed. It's been nice partying with you. Pity there won't be any more parties. Victor.

I know I keep coming back to this same issue - but it keeps popping up.

"I'm old - got no kids - not my problem".

Is that really what you want to say to these other people?

"I'm young - got some kids - seem to have this big problem that I wish more people would care about."

or to these folks -

"I'm really young - everybody seems to be worried about a lot of stuff - I feel completely powerless and freaked out - do I have a future?"

Whether we have kids or not - we are leaving behind a legacy for future generations. None of us can afford to ignore it - right it off - or refuse to accept our role in raising awareness or taking action.

Of course unless we think that everything is fine - from climate change - to ruthless corporate monopolies running the show while wars are fought on more fronts than we can count and countless men, women, and children die as a result.

Do I sound like an alarmist? How many of us have lowered our expectations on what life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness really means in order to feel like we're still doing just fine? Or now feel that these rights are just for us - but maybe not for everybody?

Re:Warm isn't it?
Wednesday, July 18 2012 @ 05:02 PM CDT

Quote by: Dadai.2 Here's a longer term chart of global temps from

... a guy with a degree in forest science, published in an energy journal.

So he was critiqued for methodological sloppiness. Do you see the second graph in that article where he has applied error bars? Sorry, things don't work that way. Dead giveaway that there is some really bad reasoning done.

Quote by: bud "I'm old - got no kids - not my problem". Is that really what you want to say to these other people?

Of course not. I love civilization, I love humanity in all its glory. I'd hate to see all this go down. And I'd hate to be remembered/reviled as part of the generation that could have prevented it but didn't.

Victor.

Re:Warm isn't it?
Wednesday, July 18 2012 @ 05:09 PM CDT

Quote by: VicDiesel Quote by: Dadai.2 Here's a longer term chart of global temps from ... a guy with a degree in forest science, published in an energy journal. So he was critiqued for methodological sloppiness. Do you see the second graph in that article where he has applied error bars? Sorry, things don't work that way. Dead giveaway that there is some really bad reasoning done. Victor.

Well, coming from an eminent climate scientist and logician such as yourself, I guess that settles it... end of discussion.

Re:Warm isn't it?
Wednesday, July 18 2012 @ 06:57 PM CDT

some guy named Wegener thought that continents drifted over time. he was not a geologist (he was a meteorologist), so his theory was not accepted for years.

EDIT: i should say his idea was actively rejected, thereby stifling any meaningful research to back up the idea for many years. turns out he was correct, but couldn't find the driving force behind it

more recently a couple of electrochemistry scientists experimented with palladium and made some claims in an area of nuclear physics. they got roundly shouted down well before any more science could be done to confirm/disprove it. turns out they were probably wrong, although research quietly continues even to this day because some interesting stubborn anomalies keep turning up...

my point is that science unfortunately has a strong turf-protecting aspect to it that can distort the direction of research

so saying "a guy with a degree in forest science, published in an energy journal" doesn't impress me as a good reason to completely disregard whatever that scientist said. maybe there are other good reasons to do so, but that isn't it.

Re:Warm isn't it?
Wednesday, July 18 2012 @ 07:16 PM CDT

Quote by: SmokeyVW so saying "a guy with a degree in forest science, published in an energy journal" doesn't impress me as a good reason to completely disregard whatever that scientist said. maybe there are other good reasons to do so, but that isn't it.

Well, at least the energy journal is a good indication that he has an agenda.

But yeah, it's his conception of error bars that turns the paper into one of those "students say the darndest things" parodies of a science report.

Victor.

Re:Warm isn't it?
Wednesday, July 18 2012 @ 07:59 PM CDT

this thread prompted me to look into something called paleoclimatology. i vaguely remember reading about years ago... it's a fascinating subject, and i think it can put today's climate into the proper perspective

Re:Warm isn't it?
Wednesday, July 18 2012 @ 08:00 PM CDT

Yes, but not as hot as it's getting in here (nyuck, nyuck, nyuck!)

Re:Warm isn't it?
Wednesday, July 18 2012 @ 08:50 PM CDT

Quote by: bud Do I sound like an alarmist? How many of us have lowered our expectations on what life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness really means in order to feel like we're still doing just fine? Or now feel that these rights are just for us - but maybe not for everybody?

We live in alarming times.

(Your post raises any number of questions for me, and if this is no longer an appropriate place to discuss it, perhaps a new thread is in order.)

Back to your comment, I think it might be easiest to start by asking, "what are rights and where do they come from?"


MoM.

Re:Warm isn't it?
Wednesday, July 18 2012 @ 09:19 PM CDT

http://www.socratescafemn.org/